COVID-19 infection forecast: scientists compiled a new model for identifying new foci

New coronavirus forecast model compiled

A new model for the spread of the coronavirus infection was compiled by the neuroinformatics scientists at the University of Osnabrück. It is based on daily COVID-19 distribution data by region. The model includes new outbreaks registered and a five-day forecast for each area. These data are provided by the German Robert Koch Institute. The new model is called BSTI, which stands for COVID-19 Bayesian Simulation for Outbreak Detection. It has two key features that differentiate it from other forecasting models.

The new method provides forecast horizons and thus makes it possible to assess its reliability. In addition, the new method takes into account the influence of the level of infection in neighboring territories. The general data allows the scientists to assess the dynamics of the spread of the coronavirus.

The previously used general predicted trajectory was misleading because it was not highly reliable. The new model calculates not only one likely path of propagation, but it also takes into account data from other territories. It makes possible to calculate many different options as a measure of the probability distribution. In assessing the situation, the model includes various errors that can become useful information even with a small number of infections.

The model calculates the influence of the neighboring regions on the focus of infection. In addition, it takes into account the spread of not only the coronavirus, but also other infections, such as rotavirus, Lyme disease and some other viral infections.

The experts of the Julich Supercomputer Center, who use artificial intelligence for analysis, help to correct the data obtained. Daily updated data will be available to any user. Perhaps that method will be used in Russia as well. To date, the experts attribute the incidence of the coronavirus in the country to the first wave and believe that there will not be the second wave. On the eve of the manifestation of seasonal respiratory diseases in certain regions of Russia, the virus continues to gain momentum.

The operational headquarters of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation publishes data on new cases of COVID-19 every day, and in some Russian territories, the coronavirus infection does not slow down. Regional hospitals have been redesigned for patients diagnosed with covid-pneumonia.

The number of patients grows every day. Some of the sick continue to receive treatment without a hospital under the supervision of doctors at home. In large Russian cities, medical facilities are overwhelmed with new patients diagnosed with the COVID-19. To date, the national average has added more than 6400 people who are diagnosed with it.