The probability that humanity is living in a simulation could be 50%. And in many ways, such an existence can resemble a video game. If we assume that there is a simulation, then in that way one can explain why a person cannot travel at a speed exceeding the speed of light. It is limited so as not to fall into a parallel galaxy. To some, such judgments may seem frivolous and absurd.
But in 2003, Oxford University physicist Nick Bostrom argued for the simulation. The scientists from different countries of the world were connected to his hypothesis that tried to determine ways to prove that a person can be a simulated creature.
A new research demonstrates that there is a chance that humanity will remain in basic reality. And if a person could develop the ability to imitate conscious beings, the chances of simulation would be greatly increased. In 2003, Bostrom suggested a powerful civilization with enormous computational power to model new realities with conscious beings in them. This scenario seems plausible.
The first, people almost always complete their life paths before reaching the modeling stage. The second, even at the border of the stage, a person is unlikely to be interested in modeling his personal past. The third, the likelihood that the humanity is in a simulation is close to a low rate of about 1%.
A striking example of a possible simulation at the level of fiction is the film The Matrix that contains the basic concept of simulated reality. The idea has deep roots in several philosophical traditions, from Plato's allegory of the cave to Chuang Zhou's dream of a butterfly.
The new addition to the idea is related to the proposals of Elon Musk, who believes that our existing reality is a simulation. In his opinion, the probability that a person is in basic reality today is one in a billion. Columbia University's David Kipping offers a better understanding of simulation simulation.
It uses Bayes' theorem that allows you to calculate the probability that something will happen if you calculate that probability. As a result, each hypothesis related to the simulation acquires a prior probability equal to half to make an affirmative decision.