The mortality from COVID-19 is much higher than scientists supposed: 1.3% versus 0.1% of seasonal flu

The mortality from COVID-19 is much higher than scientists supposed

The rapidly spreading coronavirus has a higher mortality rate than seasonal flu. That is reported by scientists at the University of Washington. And if a number of countries around the world do not take serious steps to combat the spread of coronavirus, the consequences can be very serious. Now the scientists have calculated that the death rate for people with COVID-19 is about 1.3%.

Moreover, the mortality rate from seasonal flu does not exceed 0.1% of the total number of cases. Coronavirus infection is deadlier than flu. Anirban Basu, professor of health economics and director of the CHOICE Institute at the University of Washington School of Pharmacy, said that it was time to stop arguing that coronavirus was not that dangerous.

In his opinion, COVID-19 kills more people than any existing viral infection. An analysis of the past weeks and months during which coronavirus spread has allowed scientists to make predictions for the near future by comparing the probable numbers of the total number of infections and symptomatic cases. In different countries, the mortality rate can range from 0.5 to 3.6%.

Today’s calculations show that if, for example, the USA does not introduce harsh measures against COVID-19, then by the end of the year at least 500 thousand people will die from coronavirus. The peculiarity of this virus is that it is more contagious than other infections.

By the end of the year, a total of 20 percent of the population can become infected in each country. The number of infected who will be treated asymptomatically will increase. And mortality from average indicators of 350 thousand will reach the level of 1.2 million people only, for example, in the USA.

For the public health, these numbers are shocking. Making such forecasts gives an understanding of the spread of the disease. Such models should not be considered as the “last word” in calculating the incidence rate and mortality rate. But it is quite suitable to measure the situation of the impact of the virus on population.