By studying the physical characteristics of solar flares, the scientists are counting on predicting space weather. Today, its calculation is done solely on assumptions and guesses. All of them are based on the principles of solar activity observed on the surface of a star, without taking into account the specific processes following solar flares. But modern technology makes it possible to predict powerful solar radioactive eruptions.
The new method is capable of detecting powerful flares and predicting the appearance of new ones. A space weather that includes solar radiation, is harmful to human health. In addition, solar activity can disrupt radio communications, interfere with the operation of satellite systems, destroy electrical networks, and endanger the lives of astronauts.
If space weather forecasts are made more accurate, then all its negative consequences can be prevented, or at least mitigated. Modern forecasting techniques are based on tracking outbreak events. They manifest themselves as large dark spots on the surface of the Sun. But sometimes these spots do not show activity and only cause a false alarm.
The proposed new method is associated with the definition of tangled loops of the Sun's magnetic field, which release powerful bursts of energy, forming solar storms. A new method of studying the effects of sunlight has been discovered by the specialists from the University of Nagoya in Japan.
A physicist Kanya Kusano and his colleagues speculate that the largest flares occurred when two arc lines of the magnetic field join to form an M-shaped loop near the Sun's surface. This "double arc instability" results in more magnetic reconnection and the M-loop expands, releasing energy.
This factor formed the basis of a new method for calculating the activity of the Sun. Using the technology, the scientists conducted several experiments and during them a technician equipped with a new method correctly predicted 7 out of 9 outbreaks recorded. In the future, the use of this method will allow timely and early response to powerful solar activity.